The S&P 500 (SPY) continues to impress on this recent bull run. Yet the level of 5,000 is nearly 50% above the bear market lows and many value investors are saying that stocks are getting expensive. So will stocks race above 5,000 or will this level prove to be a long red light? 43 year investment veteran Steve Reitmeister shares his views in the commentary below along with a preview of this top 12 stocks to buy at this time.
There is no surprise that the market is flirting with 5,000 for the S&P 500 (SPY). Just too attractive of a level not to attain at this time.
The problem is that this is a very hollow rally like we saw for the majority of 2023 where almost all the gains were accruing to the Magnificent 7 mega cap tech stocks.
Unfortunately, the vast majority of stocks are actually in the red which can best appreciated by the loss for the Russell 2000 index in the new year.
Let’s discuss what this means for the market outlook and how we still chart a course to outperformance in the days and weeks ahead.
Market Commentary
Thursday offered the first attempt for stocks to break above 5,000. In fact, the index got to 4,999.89 late in the session before resistance kicked in.
Friday was much the same floating just below that 5,000 level. Taking little shots here or there. Yet at the close it fell short once again.
In the long run stocks will climb well above 5,000 as most bull markets last over 5 years and we are still at the very early stages of this bullish phase. That is not the current contemplation. Rather it is about how long it will take to breakout above 5,000?
I explored this concept in my previous article: Are Stocks Stuck til Summer?
The answer to the above question is YES…I think that 5,000 will prove to be a solid lid on stock prices until the Fed starts lowering rates.
No…I am not calling for a correction like some commentators. Perhaps a 3-5% pullback ensues then we play in a range of 4,800 to 5,000 until we get a green light from the Fed on lower rates. This is what would give investors a good reason to step on the gas pedal attaining new highs above 5,000.
Right now, I sense we will just be idling at a red light. Changing the radio station. Sneaking a quick peek at our phones. Staring at people in other cars. Etc.
But once the Fed lowers rates it means more rate cuts are to follow which increases economic growth > earnings growth > stock prices. On top of that lower bond rates makes stocks the more attractive investment by comparison.
This chain of events is the clear green light for stocks to race ahead. Until then I think that many will be worried about how long the Fed will sit on their hands. Many are already surprised they have waited this long.
Then again, when you look at the Fed’s long term track record where 12 of 15 rate hike regimes have ended in recession, then you start to appreciate that these guys often overstay their welcome with rate hikes.
Let’s not forget that there are also 6-12 months of lagged effects on their policies so even if the economy looks OK at the time that rates are cut it is still possible for a recession to form.
That is not my base case at this time. I do sense that this Fed has a better appreciation of history and is managing the dual mandate of moderate inflation and full employment quite well. Meaning that I suspect a soft landing is the most likely outcome, followed by acceleration of the economy…corporate earnings…and yes, share prices.
The point is that the Fed policies are at the center of investment equation at this time. And the key to understanding what the Fed will do is keeping an eye on economic developments. In particular, inflation and employment metrics.
Right now, employment is quite healthy…maybe too healthy for the Fed’s liking. Not just the surprisingly high 353,000 jobs added last month, but also the eerily high wage inflation readings that spiked up to 4.5% year over year.
No doubt the Fed is not fond of this sticky form of wage inflation and would like to see more easing of that pressure before they start lowering rates. The next reading of wage inflation will be on Friday March 7th.
Before that time, we will get the next round of CPI (2/13) and PPI (2/16) inflation readings. Those have been moving in the right direction for some time. In fact, PPI is the leading indicator for the more widely followed CPI, was all the way down to 1% inflation rate at last months reading.
For as good as that is, the Fed is not as fond of CPI and PPI as traders are. They prefer readings from the PCE inflation reading which doesn’t come out til 2/29.
But really they have even more sophisticated ways of reading inflation which can better be appreciated by the Sticky-Price CPI monitoring done by the Atlanta Fed.
As the chart below shows, Sticky Inflation (orange line hovering around 5%) is, well, too darn sticky at this time. Meaning that academics and economists at the Fed are likely concerned that inflation is still too persistent and that more patience is required before lowering rates.
To sum it up, I suspect that 5,000 will prove to be a point of stiff resistance for a while. This should lead to an extended trading range period with investors awaiting the green light from the Fed to start lowering rates.
Yes, it is always possible for stocks to race ahead without this clear go ahead by the Fed. That is why its wise to stay in a bullish posture to enjoy the gains whenever they unfold.
I am saying to just not be that surprised if we don’t continue to rise given 3 straight months of very bullish conditions coupled with facing an obvious place of stiff psychological resistance at 5,000.
At this stage the Magnificent 7 have had their fun. I wouldn’t be surprised if some profits are taken there and shifted to smaller stocks. What you might call a sector rotation or change in leadership. There was some good signs of that starting to be the case on Thursday as the Russell 2000 rose +1.5% on the session while the large cap focused S&P 500 hovered around breakeven.
Also, I suspect there will be a greater eye towards value as many market watchers are pointing out that earnings growth is muted and thus at this level the overall market is pretty fully valued. That is especially true for the Magnificent 7 that no value investor could stomach their exorbitant multiples.
This too calls for a rotation to new stocks that are more deserving of higher prices. It is precisely these kinds of “under the radar” growth stocks trading at reasonable prices that I cherish.
To discover which ones I am recommending in my portfolio now, then read on below…
What To Do Next?
Discover my current portfolio of 12 stocks packed to the brim with the outperforming benefits found in our exclusive POWR Ratings model. (Nearly 4X better than the S&P 500 going back to 1999)
This includes 5 under the radar small caps recently added with tremendous upside potential.
Plus I have 1 special ETF that is incredibly well positioned to outpace the market in the weeks and months ahead.
This is all based on my 43 years of investing experience seeing bull markets…bear markets…and everything between.
If you are curious to learn more, and want to see these lucky 13 hand selected trades, then please click the link below to get started now.
Steve Reitmeister’s Trading Plan & Top Picks >
Wishing you a world of investment success!
Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)
CEO, StockNews.com and Editor, Reitmeister Total Return
SPY shares rose $1.33 (+0.27%) in premarket trading Friday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 5.12%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Steve Reitmeister
Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.
The post 5,000 Green or Red Light for Stocks??? appeared first on StockNews.com
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Less is more when it comes to crafting the perfect resume, according to this industry expert.
Nolan Church, a former Google recruiter and current CEO of talent marketplace Continuum, says his biggest resume faux pax is too many words and not a lot of context.
“The No. 1 thing I don’t want to see on a resume is probably text bricks,” he said in an interview with CNBC Make It, adding that if he sees “endless streams of text” on an applicant’s credentials, “there’s zero chance you’re going to move forward.”
RELATED: 19 Best Skills To Put on a Resume That Employers Will Love
Instead, Church advises people to “optimize a resume for 10-second viewership” with short sentences that highlight the most important points, making it faster for HR to review your credentials and move along in the hiring process.
Church finds that people often go wrong when describing their daily duties, and says a concise one-line bullet below each job title should suffice. With short-hand communication like Slack and email so pertinent in office culture, getting to the point fast and clearly is crucial.
RELATED: Exploring the 6 Different Types of Resumes
“If you can’t succinctly describe what you’ve been doing in your career, there’s just no way you’re going to be able to succinctly write in the workplace,” Church said.
He recommends the tools ChatGPT and Grammarly to cut down on words and consolidate descriptions. Additionally, he suggests having at least five to 10 people review and provide feedback on your resume. That way the next time a recruiter sees your credentials, they will be finely tailored.
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Personal finance influencers share money tips and strategies with their followers across social media platforms, podcasts, and blogs. Millennials and members of Gen Z frequently turn to channels such as TikTok, Instagram, Reddit, and YouTube when looking for ways to improve their financial situations. While getting free money advice from influencers can be a cost-conscious move, it’s important to know how to spot potential scammers, fakes, and frauds.
Key Takeaways
- Personal finance influencers share money insight and tips with their followers across social media channels, blogs, and podcasts.
- Professional financial experience or education isn’t necessarily a qualification to becoming an influencer; many draw on their own experiences instead.
- Financial advice offered by influencers may be free, but it may not always be accurate or suited to your individual situation.
- Supplementing advice from influencers with guidance from a professional financial advisor can help you create a grounded plan for managing money.
What Is a Personal Finance Influencer?
A personal finance influencer is someone who uses social media platforms to offer tips and insight on money to their followers. These are often everyday people who use their own experiences with money to help others solve their financial problems. While some influencers may have a background in financial services—such as working in banking or being a financial advisor—it isn’t a requirement to become one.
Personal finance influencers create content related to different financial topics and provide it to their followers for free. This content can include blog posts, social media posts, podcasts, financial “printables” (downloadable PDF files that you can print), ebooks, guides, courses, workshops, and webinars. Some of the most popular channels for financial influencers include:
- TikTok
- YouTube
Influencers can also create their own blogs or websites to promote their content. They may monetize their blog and/or social channels in a variety of ways, including engaging in affiliate marketing, running ads, selling digital or physical products, charging fees to access premium content, and creating sponsored content. Some influencers also may offer coaching services for a fee.
Who Uses Social Media for Financial Advice?
Anyone can search social media for financial tips and advice, but it’s particularly appealing to younger adults looking for content that’s easy to consume and understand. A survey by the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors found that more than one-third (39%) of Americans under age 65 get financial advice online or from social media, while more than one-fourth of Gen Zers get money tips through social media platforms.
In terms of the most popular social media outlets for getting financial advice, here’s how they rank, according to the 2022 Investopedia Financial Literacy Survey:
As mentioned, young adults also are turning to Reddit and Twitter as outside-the-box options for getting financial advice. Part of the appeal may lie in the fact that much of this information is offered for free. That can be more attractive to young adults, who would rather avoid paying the 0.25% to 1% or more in annual management fees that financial advisors often charge.
Another draw is relatability. A twentysomething who is struggling to grow their income or pay off student loans may be able to relate more to a thirtysomething who has successfully paid off their debt with side hustles than a financial advisor in their 60s who has a seven-figure net worth. Likewise, women, people in the BIPOC community, those who identify as LGBTQ+, and the disabled may seek out personal finance influencers who share similar backgrounds rather than look for help from an industry that is still significantly lacking in diversification.
Using hashtags, such as #financialadvice or #moneytips, can make it easier to search for personal finance influencer content on social media.
6 Personal Finance Influencer Red Flags
Before taking a personal finance influencer’s advice, it’s important to make sure that the information you’re getting is trustworthy and that they have proven authority and credibility. Watching out for common red flags can help you to identify influencers who aren’t legitimate.
Here are some of the most common signs that a personal finance influencer may not be what they appear:
1. Promises That Are Too Good to Be True
Personal finance influencers who frequently use terms such as “foolproof,” “guaranteed,” or “no fail” may need to be taken with a grain of salt, as there are no absolute guarantees when it comes to money. Also, beware of any influencer who promises to help you “get rich quick” with minimal effort.
2. Hard Sell
Genuine influencers are interested in helping their followers improve their financial situations first—any money that they make should come second. If you’re constantly bombarded by sales pitches, it could be a sign that an influencer doesn’t have your best interests in mind when dispensing financial advice.
3. Lack of Proof
Influencers who claim to be making $100,000 a year from side hustles—or who say they’ve retired at age 35—should be able to back that up. If an influencer can’t show you the receipts to demonstrate how they achieved their success, you should approach their advice with a healthy amount of skepticism. It also doesn’t hurt to look up a scattering of facts that the influencer cites on trusted sources like the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) or U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) websites. Are they accurate, careful, and up-to-date?
4. Pushing Too Many Paid Promotions
Influencers can make money through affiliate marketing or sponsored posts; this is actually quite normal; however, if they’re constantly pushing products that they themselves have not used or are writing sponsored post after sponsored post, it may be a sign that earning money—not sharing genuine financial advice—is their main motivation.
5. Lots of Followers, but Little Engagement With Them
An influencer who boasts hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of followers, may seem impressive. But it’s important to look at how many of those followers actually engage with their content by liking, commenting on, or sharing it. High follower counts could be hiding bots instead of real readers.
6. Requests for Money Up Front
If an influencer asks you for money or gift cards before providing content, a product, or a service, that could be a dead giveaway that what they’re really doing is running a scam.
Should I Get Financial Advice From Social Media?
Whether you feel comfortable getting money tips and advice from social media platforms can depend on how reliable you think that information will be. Social media influencers can provide financial advice for free, which is a plus if you’re on a tight budget, but it shouldn’t necessarily be considered a substitute for advice from a financial advisor, a financial planner, or a certified credit counselor.
How Can I Spot Scams?
A personal finance influencer who makes promises that seem too good to be true or asks for money from you without providing you with any content or services could be a scammer. Be wary of anything that feels odd; in other words, trust your gut and avoid influencers who give off the wrong vibe.
Can Anyone Offer Financial Advice Online?
Technically, yes, anyone can share financial tips or insight through social media channels, a podcast, a website, or a blog. However, whether that information is accurate and legitimate can depend on the individual sharing it. Again, personal finance influencers often use their own experiences to inform the advice that they share, which may or may not include professional expertise in the financial services industry. Still, having a financial certification couldn’t hurt.
The Bottom Line
Asking the right questions can help you find the right personal finance influencers to follow. For example, ask yourself what motivates this person to share their money tips. Is it a genuine desire to help others? Or is it all about making money?
If they’re leveraging social media platforms to make money as an influencer, are they disclosing affiliate relationships and sponsorships? Are they transparent about how they make their income? Can they back up their claims with verifiable proof? Looking under the hood and kicking the tires can help you determine whose advice is worth your attention.
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