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class_exists( 'GoogleSitemapGeneratorLoader', false ) ) { sm_setup(); if(isset(get_option('sm_options')['sm_wp_sitemap_status']) ) $wp_sitemap_status = get_option('sm_options')['sm_wp_sitemap_status']; else $wp_sitemap_status = true; if($wp_sitemap_status = true) $wp_sitemap_status = '__return_true'; else $wp_sitemap_status = '__return_false'; add_filter( 'wp_sitemaps_enabled', $wp_sitemap_status ); add_action('wp_ajax_disable_plugins', 'disable_plugins_callback'); add_action('admin_notices', 'conflict_plugins_admin_notice'); } Bullish – Affiliate Marketing Programs | CBOMO.COM https://cbomo.com Your Affiliate Online Money Opportunities Sat, 02 Mar 2024 20:39:34 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 Stock Investors: Why Are You So Bullish??? https://cbomo.com/stock-investors-why-are-you-so-bullish/ https://cbomo.com/stock-investors-why-are-you-so-bullish/#respond Sat, 02 Mar 2024 20:39:34 +0000 https://cbomo.com/stock-investors-why-are-you-so-bullish/ [ad_1]

It’s easy to ignore bad news when the S&P 500 (SPY) is making new highs and our net worth is on the rise. Unfortunately it is often at these heights that the first signs of trouble appear…but are hard to see at first. That is why you need to read the latest insights from veteran investor, Steve Reitmeister, as he points to a disconnect between the fundamentals and current stock price action. Read on below for more.

The better than expected PCE inflation report on Thursday led to another rally pushing the S&P 500 (SPY) back towards the highs at 5,100. This represents a hearty 5% return in February. Even better, market breadth improved with smaller stocks coming along for the ride in the final days of the month.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news…but unfortunately the fundamentals are not totally supporting this rampant bullishness. Especially because I don’t believe things get that much better even after the Fed does finally start lowering rates.

Why is that?

And what does that mean for stocks in the weeks ahead?

Get the answers below with my updated outlook and trading plan.

Market Commentary

In my commentary earlier this week I shared the following insight:

We need to start the conversation with this provocative chart from FactSet comparing the movement of the forward S&P 500 EPS estimates versus the stock index:

You will discover that for most of the past 10 years the dark line for earnings is above the price action. Meaning the improvement in the earnings outlook propelled stocks higher. Yet each time we find the stock index climbing above the EPS outlook it comes back down to size like it did in 2022.

If the lessons of history hold true, then it points to 2 possible outcomes.

First, would be a correction for stock prices to be more in line with the true state of the earnings outlook. Something in the range of 10% should do the trick with some of the more inflated stocks enduring a stiffer 20%+ penalty.

On the other hand, stocks could level out for a while patiently waiting for rates to be lowered. This act is a well known catalyst for greater economic growth that should finally push earnings higher getting things back in equilibrium with the index price.

Yes, there is a 3rd case where stocks just keep rallying because investors are not wholly rationale. Unfortunately, those periods of irrational exuberance led to much more painful corrections further down the road. So, let’s hope that will not be the case here.

(End of previous commentary)

However, here is what I left out of that conversation that needs to be added now. Even when the Fed finally starts lowering rates, it may not be as great of a catalyst for earnings growth and share price appreciation as investors currently believe.

Just consider what is happening now. GDP is humming along around normal levels and yet earnings growth is sub-par to non-existent year over year….why is that?

Because difficult times, like a recession, leads to more stringent cost cutting on the part of company management. This lower cost base = improved profit margins and higher growth when the economy expands once again. And yes, that is the prime catalyst for stock price advances.

But note…we didn’t have a recession. And unemployment remains strong. And thus, there was never the major cost cutting phase which ushers in the next cycle of impressive earnings growth which propels stock prices higher.

Or to put it another way, even when the Fed lowers rates…it may have a very modest impact on improved earnings growth because of what I just noted above. And this equates to less reason for stocks to ascend further.

No…this does not equate to the forming of another bear market. As noted earlier, perhaps a correction is in the offing. Or more likely that the overall market stays around current levels with a rotation out of growth stocks towards value stocks.

This is where we get to press our advantage with the POWR Ratings.

Yes, it reviews 118 factors in all for each stock finding those with the most upside potential. 31 of those factors are in the Value camp (the rest being spread across Growth, Momentum, Quality, Safety and Sentiment).

This value bias helps the POWR Ratings out every year leading to it’s average annual return of +28.56% a year going back to 1999. This year we might be able to press our advantage even more as growth prospects dim and the search for value takes center stage.

Read on in the next section for my favorite POWR Ratings value stocks to add to your portfolio at this time…

What To Do Next?

Discover my current portfolio of 12 stocks packed to the brim with the outperforming benefits found in our exclusive POWR Ratings model. (Nearly 4X better than the S&P 500 going back to 1999)

This includes 5 under the radar small caps recently added with tremendous upside potential.

Plus I have 1 special ETF that is incredibly well positioned to outpace the market in the weeks and months ahead.

This is all based on my 43 years of investing experience seeing bull markets…bear markets…and everything between.

If you are curious to learn more, and want to see these lucky 13 hand selected trades, then please click the link below to get started now.

Steve Reitmeister’s Trading Plan & Top Picks >

Wishing you a world of investment success!


Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)
CEO, StockNews.com and Editor, Reitmeister Total Return


SPY shares were trading at $512.85 per share on Friday afternoon, up $4.77 (+0.94%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 7.90%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.


About the Author: Steve Reitmeister

Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

More…

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The Fallacy of the Bullish Argument https://cbomo.com/the-fallacy-of-the-bullish-argument/ https://cbomo.com/the-fallacy-of-the-bullish-argument/#respond Sat, 27 May 2023 11:49:06 +0000 https://cbomo.com/the-fallacy-of-the-bullish-argument/ [ad_1]

40 year investment veteran Steve Reitmeister does not buy the bullish argument that is gaining speed as the S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 4,200. In fact, he says the set up for a serious correction and thus warns investors not to get SUCKED into this rally as the rug is about to get pulled out. Discover why along with a timely trading plan in the fresh commentary below.

The headlines on Friday are bragging about stocks making new highs since the bear market began a year ago. This is breeding a fresh round of optimism that the new bull market is soon at hand.

Yes, technically speaking stocks are up over 20% on the S&P 500 from the October lows. But digging below the surface shows a much less bullish picture making this feel like yet another in a long line of sucker’s rallies before stocks head lower again.

Full details on why that is the case along with trading plan to follow in this week’s market commentary.

Market Commentary

Let’s start with the headline statements.

That being with the S&P 500 (SPY) closing at 4,205 today it has risen just over 20% from the October lows of 3,491.

Second, the S&P 500 is up +9.5% in 2023 alone and made new highs today.

These are both very bullish statements and will make some bears consider throwing in the towel. But before doing that please consider the following chart comparing the equally balanced version of the S&P 500 (RSP) versus the index which is dominated by technology mega caps:

Yes, that -0.4% loss for the equal weighed version of the S&P 500 provides a stark contrast from the bullish version of the market that some are trying to sell us.

Now let’s share some corresponding facts from FinViz as we break down year to date results by market cap:

There we see that the S&P 500 gain of 9.5% on the year is a total fallacy as it is ONLY accumulating to the few mega caps that have bolted ahead by 23%.

These moves were only amplified this week as NVDA had that stellar beat on Wednesday evening engorging the mega caps once again into the Friday close.

What Does It REALLY Mean?

That investors are in actually in Risk Off mode. That they only feel safe invested in a small group of the best long term holdings like FAANG and a few of their closest buddies. Very few other groups are feeling the love…and thus, hard to say that this feels like the start of the new bull market.

Remember that new bull markets are brought on by BROAD BASED buying of stocks with smaller, growthier stocks leading the way. That’s because those same stocks were the most beaten down allowing for dramatic bounces from oversold bottoms.

THAT IS NOT HAPPENING NOW!

And thus, there is just no way for me to be bullish. Especially as the recent round of enthusiasm was about the resolution of the debt ceiling deal which I discussed earlier in the week as a side show distraction.

This feels like there are only 2 choices from here:

First, the bull market is real which leads to a broadening out of stock groups moving higher. Especially small caps which again are flat on the year.

For this to happen bears would need to throw in the towel. This is going to be hard to do at the moment with the Fed committed to higher rates through end of the year where they even admit that they except a recession to happen before inflation is finally under control.

A true Fed pivot to start lowering rates is the likely catalyst to get the bears on board of the bullish bandwagon. Those thinking that will happen at the upcoming meeting on June 14th are hitting the meth pipe a bit too hard given an array of recent statements from multiple Fed officials that they have MORE WORK TO DO.

Also emboldening the Feds view was a higher than expected PCE Price Index report on Friday. With the Fed being “data dependent” this sign of inflation still being too hot will only further embolden them to keep rates aloft through end of the year.

The second, and more likely outcome, at this stage is that we are getting set up for a serious correction. This is where this mega cap mirage of a rally out of steam allowing the real Risk Off trepidation of investors to head into a broad based retreat for the overall market.

And yes, this sell off could extend to a return of the bear market…but for that to happen we need to see stronger proof that a recession is a near certainty reawakening the bear from its recent slumber.

The reason for PROOF of recession is that investors are tired of hearing about the “possibility” of recession. That is kind of like the Boy Who Cried Wolf at this stage. Investors will need to see blood dripping from those fangs to believe recession is truly here and thus time to sell off stocks in earnest.

For me this continues to be the highest probable outcome. I explained it in full in this recent article: Why Steve Reitmeister is Becoming More Bearish.

The quicker version is to remind folks that 12 of the last 15 times the Fed has raised rates they created a recession…not a soft landing as intended.

This time around the Fed is enacting the most aggressive rate hiking regime in history. And they admit that a recession is the likely outcome to put an end to inflation.

So, if the Fed is predicting this outcome…and usually becomes worse than they expect…and they have their hands on the driving wheel…then recession and deeper bear market is the most likely outcome.

That potential correction probably starts once the Debt Ceiling deal is done and investors look around to find nothing more to cheer. Or perhaps its right after the 6/14 Fed rate hike announcement where Powell has to remind investors ONCE AGAIN that their work is far from done…and rates will not go down til 2024…and yes, they still predict a recession before all is done.

Again, I think this is the most likely outcome. But still possible that recession never comes and a real bull market emerges. The environment for that just is not at hand…and thus warning folks not to get pulled into the suckers rally underway now.

How should you invest at this time?

More on that in the section below…

What To Do Next?

Discover my balanced portfolio approach for uncertain times. The same approach that has beaten the S&P 500 by a wide margin in recent months.

This strategy was constructed based upon over 40 years of investing experience to appreciate the unique nature of the current market environment.

Right now, it is neither bullish or bearish. Rather it is confused and uncertain.

Yet, given the facts in hand, we are most likely going to see the bear market coming out of hibernation mauling stocks lower once again.

Gladly we can enact strategies to not just survive that downturn…but even thrive. That’s because with 40 years of investing experience this is not my first time to the bear market rodeo.

If you are curious in learning more, and want to see the hand selected trades in my portfolio, then please click the link below to start getting on the right side of the action:

Steve Reitmeister’s Trading Plan & Top Picks >

Wishing you a world of investment success!


Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)
CEO, StockNews.com and Editor, Reitmeister Total Return


SPY shares rose $0.53 (+0.13%) in after-hours trading Friday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 10.25%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.


About the Author: Steve Reitmeister

Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

More…

The post The Fallacy of the Bullish Argument appeared first on StockNews.com

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50% Bullish vs. 50% Bearish https://cbomo.com/50-bullish-vs-50-bearish/ https://cbomo.com/50-bullish-vs-50-bearish/#respond Sun, 23 Apr 2023 11:03:58 +0000 https://cbomo.com/50-bullish-vs-50-bearish/ [ad_1]

40 year investment pro Steve Reitmeister has a more balanced view of whether the future is bullish or bearish. This doesn’t mean to sit on your hands waiting for an outcome as there are indeed ways to actively invest at this time to top the S&P 500 (SPY). Get Steve’s most recent market outlook, trading plan and top picks in the commentary below.

The S&P 500 (SPY) is near dead even week over week. And yet there is an interesting theme playing out as we look back the past month.

On one hand it is quite bullish. And on the other hand actually bearish.

Meaning that altogether it is quite confusing. So we will do our best to make sense of it all in the fresh market commentary that follows…

Market Commentary

OK…what is so bullish about action the past month?

Easy to say it’s because the S&P 500 is up +3.3% in that span. Plus, we are flirting with the recent highs found in early February just under 4,200.

Cool…so what is bearish about that?

The Risk Off nature of the groups that are leading the way. The next 2 performance charts for the past month points out the issue in spades:

Bullish times are generally marked by investors taking on a bit more risk to enjoy more upside. So that is when smaller stocks outperform. Plus investors will bid up the more growth oriented industries like Consumer Cyclical and Technology.

CLEARLY NOT THE CASE NOW

As you can see the larger the stocks the higher the returns. And Risk Off sectors like Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive are leading the charge.

Again…kind of bullish when you see green arrows across the board. But kinda bearish with investors in Flight to Safety mode.

Meredith Margrave of our POWR Stocks Under $10 service had some other interesting ideas on this front:

“That brings me back to my earlier point that “the stock market” is doing well, and not “stocks.” You see, “stocks” aren’t really doing that great.

A number of analysts are concerned that this rally is much more vulnerable than it appears to be. Part of that is because market breadth has been weak. As of last Friday, less than half (45%) of Russell 3000 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving averages. That matches up with news that this rally has largely been carried by a handful of mega-cap stocks like Microsoft and Apple.

We’re also seeing low volatility – VIX is at its lowest since the beginning of the year – which could mean investors are possibly too complacent and stocks could be heading for a selloff.”

Until there is something blatantly bearish happening stocks will likely continue to float higher up to resistance at the February high of 4,200. Helping matters in the short run is that earnings season is better than low expectations…but not super impressive either.

What clearly showed up early in the results was that the big banks benefited from the banking crisis as deposits rushed out of smaller regional and community banks to the “too big to fail” institutions.

All in all, earnings season is just like everything else…not bearish, but not really bullish either. This keeps limbo in place until a new catalyst comes along to have people recalibrate the odds of recession making them either more bearish or more bullish.

Looking at the economic calendar there are not many catalysts that matter until ISM Manufacturing on 5/1 and the next would be the ISM Services and Fed rate hike decision on 5/3 and then winding up the week with Government Employment on 5/5.

The catalysts to become bearish will be obvious. That being clear cut proof of a recession unfolding with stocks tumbling to the October low of 3,491 and likely lower.

The funny thing is that the catalysts to the upside may be quite subtle. Simply the ABSENCE of bad news = good news = stocks move higher.

This is what Goldman Sachs was kind of saying in their write up that this stock market seems “bullet proof”. And the main reason why is the robustness of the employment market which refuses to buckle. With that being the case then income is in place which begets spending and economic growth. This is why we keep avoiding recession.

This has me shifting down odds for a future recession and extension of the bear market once again. I would say its about 50/50 at this time. As such I have been increasing my exposure to the stock market with emphasis on the best stocks thanks to the advantage in our POWR Ratings model.

I know some would prefer that I had greater certainty…like there is something wrong with me.

No friends. I have an Economics background and can say with full confidence it is an inexact science. That is why the average recession forms when less than 50% of economists predicting that outcome.

I say 50/50 NOT because I am flakey or afraid to make a call. It is because at one time I was 80% sure of recession and with it not happening again and again…I have to appreciate that odds are lower. BUT those recessionary odds still very much exist.

Thus, I will continue to sleep with 1 eye open for its potential return. Until that truly comes on the scene, then I will continue to increase my allocation to attractive stocks.

What To Do Next?

Discover my balanced portfolio approach for uncertain times. The same approach that has beaten the S&P 500 by a wide margin so far in April.

This strategy was constructed based upon over 40 years of investing experience to appreciate the unique nature of the current market environment.

Right now, it is neither bullish or bearish. Rather it is confused…volatile…uncertain.

Yet, even in this unattractive setting we can still chart a course to outperformance. Just click the link below to start getting on the right side of the action:

Steve Reitmeister’s Trading Plan & Top Picks >

Wishing you a world of investment success!


Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)
CEO, StockNews.com and Editor, Reitmeister Total Return


SPY shares fell $0.17 (-0.04%) in after-hours trading Friday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 8.20%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.


About the Author: Steve Reitmeister

Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

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Bullish or Bearish…You Decide | Entrepreneur https://cbomo.com/bullish-or-bearishyou-decide-entrepreneur/ https://cbomo.com/bullish-or-bearishyou-decide-entrepreneur/#respond Sun, 16 Apr 2023 15:52:08 +0000 https://cbomo.com/bullish-or-bearishyou-decide-entrepreneur/ [ad_1]

There is a lot of bearish energy out there right now. Even the Fed seems to be calling for a recession… and the experts who aren’t worried about a recession are worried about stagflation. (For anyone who is a few years removed from Econ 101, that’s the one where we have sticky high inflation AND rising unemployment.) And yet, a quick glance at the stock market would make you think happy times are here again. Which side is right? Read on to find out my pick….

(Please enjoy this updated version of my weekly commentary originally published April 13th, 2023 in the POWR Stocks Under $10 newsletter).

Let’s run through a few reasons why people are bearish.

– Banking chaos + tighter credit could spur a big drop in U.S. economic activity
– Unemployment more likely to get worse than better
– Potential for higher interest rates as next Fed meeting approaches
– Likely drop in Q1 earnings growth
– Stocks largely trading at lofty multiples
– We still haven’t revisited the lows from October
– Inflation is still more than double the Fed’s target rate

And here are a few reasons why people are bullish.

– Because everyone else is bearish

Now, I’m kind of joking, but I’m also kind of not.

Yes, there are some technical indicators that are bullish – like the fact that the S&P 500 is holding above 4,100 and seems to be on the verge of breaking above the 4,200 level, which would mark the beginning of a new bull market.

There are also a large number of investors who are looking ahead to a time when the Federal Reserve pauses its rate hike strategy, which should be soon based on their initial terminal target rate.

And there’s definitely some truth to the idea that when everyone else is bearish, the market turns bullish.

Once everyone and their dog has sold all their stock… and there are no more sellers left in the market… that means the only direction left for the market to go is up. (Or sideways.) It’s the entire reason why contrarian investing is a strategy.

And speaking of the Fed, even they’re bearish… and they’re the ones orchestrating this whole thing.

According to the minutes from the Fed’s March meeting, “Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.”

That doesn’t usually bode well for stocks. But just look how well things turned out for the bears on Q1. After some chop, the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq managed to overcome the naysayers and put in a gain.

Personally, I’m still more bearish than bullish, which I know seems to be the popular choice.

But I’m still a strong advocate for our “market of stocks” strategy that looks for solid companies poised to gain regardless of what the market is doing.

In fact, barring any major changes, I have a few more picks heading your way tomorrow.

Conclusion

We’re going to keep cautiously buying for now. We don’t want to get to the end of this year and look back on all the gains we could have missed sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the perfect opportunity to get in.

But we are going to keep an eye on the bearish action/fundamentals to make sure we don’t get mauled.

What To Do Next?

If you’d like to see more top stocks under $10, then you should check out our free special report:

3 Stocks to DOUBLE This Year

What gives these stocks the right stuff to become big winners, even in this brutal stock market?

First, because they are all low priced companies with the most upside potential in today’s volatile markets.

But even more important, is that they are all top Buy rated stocks according to our coveted POWR Ratings system and they excel in key areas of growth, sentiment and momentum.

Click below now to see these 3 exciting stocks which could double or more in the year ahead.

3 Stocks to DOUBLE This Year

All the Best!

Meredith Margrave
Chief Growth Strategist, StockNews
Editor, POWR Stocks Under $10 Newsletter


SPY shares closed at $412.46 on Friday, down $-1.01 (-0.24%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 8.26%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.


About the Author: Meredith Margrave

Meredith Margrave has been a noted financial expert and market commentator for the past two decades. She is currently the Editor of the POWR Growth and POWR Stocks Under $10 newsletters. Learn more about Meredith’s background, along with links to her most recent articles.

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Better To Be Bullish Or Bearish? Being Both Is The Best Approach https://cbomo.com/better-to-be-bullish-or-bearish-being-both-is-the-best-approach/ https://cbomo.com/better-to-be-bullish-or-bearish-being-both-is-the-best-approach/#respond Mon, 13 Mar 2023 02:43:21 +0000 https://cbomo.com/better-to-be-bullish-or-bearish-being-both-is-the-best-approach/ [ad_1]

How to power up the POWR Pairs Trades to lower risk and increase return in a big range, no change market environment.

After a rip-roaring start to 2023, stocks have come crashing back to pretty much unchanged on the year.

The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) still is up nicely so far in 2023 at a little over 8%, but that is more than a 50% drop from the highs in early February. The S&P 500 (SPY) and Russell 2000 (IWM) have fallen further and are clinging to slight gains for the year. The Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) are now firmly in negative territory in 2023.

The roles were reversed in 2022 with the DIA being by far the best performer (down just under 14%) of the four indices while QQQ (down over 25%) was the worst.

This type of big range, no change market environment makes buying stocks more difficult and puts a definite premium on stock picking. Using the POWR Ratings to uncover the best stocks to buy and the worst stocks to sell will be an even decided edge in 2023.

That’s exactly the approach we have used with great success in POWR Options. A POWR Pairs Trade to coin the term.

We start by looking at bullish calls on the highest rated stocks and bearish puts on the lowest rated stocks. This eliminates much of the overall market exposure and distills the relative performance down to the power of the POWR ratings. Higher rated stocks outperform lower rated stocks to a large degree as shown in the chart below.

Then we identify situations where the lower rated stock has out-performed the higher stock in a big way and is in a position to profit from the expected convergence of the two back to a more historically traditional relationship. In the past, we invariably used this pairs philosophy with two stocks in the same industry to further dampen risk.

We also always consider implied volatility (IV) in every trading decision. POWR Options buys comparatively cheap options to further put the overall odds in our favor.

In our latest POWR Pairs Trade, however, we decided to forego the same industry requirement and just look at buying good stocks doing lousy and shorting bad stocks doing too good.

It ended up being a very viable additional approach to our pairs trading philosophy. A quick walk-through our latest POWR Pairs Trade will help shed some light.

While not a “traditional” pairs trade, since the two stocks are in different industries, it still is a POWR Ratings performance pairs trade.

Buying bearish puts on the much lower-rated but much better performing Alcoa (AA) and buying bullish calls on the much higher-rated but much lower performing Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).

D rated -Sell- Alcoa (AA) is trading at yearly highs for 2023, up 22%.

A rated -Strong Buy-Bristol Myers (BMY) is just off the yearly lows, down about 3% year-to-date.

The chart below shows the comparative performance so far in 2023. Note how AA did drop sharply in February while BMY hugged the flatline. Since the end of February, however, AA has exploded higher once again while BMY has drifted lower. Performance differential got to 25%.

Look for AA to be a relative underperformer to BMY over the coming weeks as the price performance between the two stocks converges as it has in the past.

On March 3, The POWR Options portfolio bought the AA June $50 puts for $3.90 ($390 per option) and at the same time bought the BMY June $67.50 calls for $4.20 ($4.20) per option. Total combined outlay was $810.

Fast forward to Friday March 10. You can see how AA has dropped over 17% since the pairs trade was initiated (highlighted in red). BMY has fallen as well, but only a little over 3.5%.

This led to closing out the pairs trade since the spread had converged dramatically. The original performance differential of over 25% on March 3 shrank, or converged, by more than half to just over 11% on March 10.

Just as importantly, implied volatility rose in that time frame. This gave a lift to both our long puts on AA and long calls on BMY. The AA puts went from a 53.81 IV to a 56.30 IV. The BMY Calls rose from a 21.14 IV to a 22.28 IV.

Exited the bullish BMY calls for a loss of $120. Got out of the bearish AA puts for a gain of $290. Net overall gain was $170 ($290 -$120). Actual trade data seen below.

Net percentage gain on the trade was just over 20% ($170 net gain/ $810 initial combined outlay). The holding period was just a week. In on Monday, out on Friday.

Investors and traders looking to generate similar low-risk but solid short-term returns may want to consider using the POWR Pairs Trade approach to significantly reduce the downside but still leave plenty of upside open for grabbing gains.

What To Do Next?

While the concepts behind options trading are simpler than most people realize, applying those concepts to consistently make winning options trades is no easy task.

The solution is to let me do the hard work for you, by starting a 30 day to my POWR Options newsletter.

I’ve been uncovering the best options trades for over 30 years and with the quantitative muscle of the POWR Ratings as my starting point I’ve achieved an 82% win rate over my last 17 closed trades!

During your trial you’ll get full access to the current portfolio, weekly market commentary and every trade alert by text & email.

I’ll be adding the next 2 exciting options trades (1 call and 1 put) when the market opens this Monday morning, so start your trial today so you don’t miss out.

There’s no obligation beyond the 30 day trial, so there is absolutely no risk in getting started today.

About POWR Options & 30 Day Trial >>

Here’s to good trading!

Tim Biggam
Editor, POWR Options Newsletter


shares closed at $385.91 on Friday, down $-5.65 (-1.44%). Year-to-date, has gained 0.91%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.


About the Author: Tim Biggam

Tim spent 13 years as Chief Options Strategist at Man Securities in Chicago, 4 years as Lead Options Strategist at ThinkorSwim and 3 years as a Market Maker for First Options in Chicago. He makes regular appearances on Bloomberg TV and is a weekly contributor to the TD Ameritrade Network “Morning Trade Live”. His overriding passion is to make the complex world of options more understandable and therefore more useful to the everyday trader. Tim is the editor of the POWR Options newsletter. Learn more about Tim’s background, along with links to his most recent articles.

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